WASHINGTON, D.C., Sept. 20 (AScribe Newswire) -- At a Capitol Hill briefing today organized by the Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment, experts warned that events like the 2003 European heat wave, prolonged droughts like those lasting six years in the western U.S., and large hurricanes may be more likely and more severe in the future due to global warming. Recent extreme events around the world have had major impacts on human health and food supplies.
"We're facing more climate shocks and surprises - events that are even beyond the extreme weather already associated with global warming," says Paul Epstein, associate director of the Harvard Medical School Center for Health and the Global Environment. "As the rate of warming increases, the climate system may be becoming more sensitive to large-scale and damaging episodes."
Some climate models project more intense hurricanes with higher peak winds. "The current series of storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific is tied to a number of factors aligning favorably," says Ruth Curry of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. "Warming of the world's oceans and associated increases in evaporation rates are likely to fuel more frequent and larger tropical storms as the global thermometer continues to rise in this century."
Other studies show that over the last half century, weather patterns have become more variable. While average annual precipitation has increased by 7 percent over the past century, annual heavy rain events (>2"/day) have increased by 14 percent, and annual very heavy rain events (>4"/day) have increased by more than 20 percent. Meanwhile, there are more frequent and more intense heat waves with prolonged droughts and the West is in its sixth year of prolonged drought, perhaps the most intense in 500 years. The prolonged drought in the western United States has left markedly reduced snowpack in the Rockies and in California, reductions in water tables, and changes in soil quality.
"Adverse health conditions cluster around extreme events," says Epstein. "Flooding can lead to the spread of water-borne, mosquito-borne, and rodent-borne disease, while droughts can accompany heat waves and sustain wildfires. The current series of mega-storms in the Gulf of Mexico have killed scores of people and have caused extensive crop losses."
"The heat wave in Europe in the summer of 2003 that killed tens of thousands of people serves as a warning of what might be anticipated if climate change proceeds as expected over the next century," says University of Delaware senior research fellow Laurence S. Kalkstein. "Those responsible for emergency services were totally unprepared for the magnitude of this event."
Recent studies show that the rate of climate change is faster than originally anticipated, suggesting the climate system is increasingly vulnerable to abrupt change. For example, in 2000, measurements showed that Greenland was melting at a rate of 1 meter per year. Those current measurements are now up to 10 meters per year. Epstein says: "These types of changes may be setting the stage for more major events like the 2003 heat wave, persistent U.S. drought, and large storms, and indicate the increasing potential for an abrupt climate change."
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CONTACT: Kathleen Frith, Center for Health and the Global Environment, 617-384-8591, cell 617-230-0357, kfrith@hms.harvard.edu
BACKGROUND: In 2001, the International Panel on Climate Change came to four main conclusions: 1. Climate is changing; 2. Humans are contributing (through greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation); 3. Biological systems (land and marine) are being altered; and 4. Weather extremes are increasing in frequency and intensity (http://www.ipcc.ch/).
Since 2001, studies have shown that other large-scale changes are taking place that may increase the volatility of the Earth's climate, such as: 1. The deep ocean is warming; 2. The cryosphere (polar and alpine ice) is shrinking; 3. Circumpolar winds (around both poles) have sped up; and 4. Ocean surface temperatures are anomalous throughout the world: tropics warmer and saltier; high latitudes cooler and fresher. Ocean changes and the acceleration of the hydrological (water) cycle underlie the erratic and severe weather patterns we are now experiencing.
In addition, atmospheric CO2 and world temperatures are rising faster than they were a decade ago; and warming is changing pressure gradients across land and ocean surfaces, increasing wind speeds. Additionally, ice core records reveal that weather volatility preceded abrupt climate change in the past (as revealed in ice core records).
ABOUT THE CENTER FOR HEALTH AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT: The Center for Health and the Global Environment (http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/) at Harvard Medical School was founded in 1996 to expand environmental education at medical schools and to further investigate and promote awareness of the human health consequences of global environmental change.
kfrith@hms.harvard.edu
BIOGRAPHIES:
Paul R. Epstein, MD, MPH, is associate director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School (http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge), and is a medical doctor trained in tropical public health. Paul has worked in medical, teaching and research capacities in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and, in 1993, coordinated an eight-part series on Health and Climate Change for the British medical journal Lancet. He has worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academy of Sciences, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to assess the health impacts of climate change and develop health applications of climate forecasting and remote sensing.
Dr. Laurence S. Kalkstein is a senior research fellow in the University of Delaware's Center for Climatic Research. He is the principal investigator on a number of contracts dealing with the assessment, development, and implementation of heat/health watch-warning systems for major cities in the United States. In addition, he is studying the relationship between climate and asthma in conjunction with the U.S. EPA and the City of Philadelphia.
Dr. Kalkstein and his team have also been involved in the development of various weather indices for use in applied climatological analysis. These include air mass-based synoptic classifications and the development of a relative climatological index, the Heat Stress Index (funded by NOAA/National Climatic Data Center). As a consultant for Combe, Inc., he has developed summer and winter dry skin indices, as well as sting and chap forecasts, which are posted daily on the web.
In addition, Dr. Kalkstein and his colleagues at his Synoptic Climatology Laboratory are embarking on research with the US EPA to develop cool initiatives to lower urban structural temperatures with the hope of saving the lives of people vulnerable to heat stress. He is also working with the EPA to develop a standardized set of intervention measures for cities when heat emergencies are called.
Dr. Kalkstein has established a Collaborating Centre status between his University and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and a similar collaborative agreement has been developed with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). As a result, the WMO appointed Dr. Kalkstein leader of its expert team on operational heat/health warnings.
Dr. Kalkstein is president-elect of the International Society of Biometeorology, the largest biometeorological organization in the world. The ISB deals with wide-ranging research involving the impact of weather upon animals, plants, and particularly human health and well-being.
Ruth Curry, Ph.D. is a research specialist in the Physical Oceanography Department at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. She has been going to sea on research vessels and making measurements around the world's oceans for the past 24 years. Her research focuses on large-scale changes in ocean watermasses and circulation and the role of the oceans in the climate system. She is the author of a number of journal articles on the subject of ocean and climate change.
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